
• 相较于一篮子标准货币,美元今年以来已贬值逾9%,欧元兑美元汇率更是触及2021年11月以来的峰值。与此同时,黄金价格突破3420美元关口,刷新历史纪录,其作为避险资产的重要地位再度引发市场关注。
唐纳德·特朗普推行的关税政策表面上旨在迫使全球“购买美国商品”,但投资者对美国资产的态度却恰恰相反。美国股市与国债市场遭遇抛售浪潮,甚至连坚挺的美元也受到冲击,其避险货币的地位受到质疑,而特朗普对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的持续施压亦未能扭转这一颓势。
尽管央行独立性的优势已成为经济领域的主流理念,然而专家警示,这一理念背后缺乏坚实的法律支撑。周一,市场首次对特朗普首席经济学家透露的“政府正探讨罢免美联储主席”这一消息做出回应。美元跌至两年来的低点,标准普尔500指数跌幅超3%。与此同时,特朗普在社交媒体上再度呼吁鲍威尔及美联储实施降息举措,声称此举将与其关税策略形成协同效应。
特朗普在“真相社交”(Truth Social)上写道:“正如我所预见的那样,随着各类成本大幅回落,美国如今几乎不存在通胀问题。然而,除非那位‘行动迟缓的落败者’(暗指美联储主席鲍威尔)即刻下调利率,否则经济增长或将陷入放缓困境。”
上周,美联储主席鲍威尔发出警示,称特朗普宣布的关税政策或将引发经济增长放缓与通胀加剧的双重困境(这一可怕的组合被称为“滞胀”),对此特朗普表态称,解雇鲍威尔“宜早不宜迟”。鲍威尔坦言,面对这样的复杂形势,美联储的处境颇为艰难:既要通过加息遏制通胀,又需降息来刺激经济活动。
次日,特朗普在与意大利总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)一起接受记者采访时,多次批评这位全球最具影响力的央行行长。
特朗普说:“倘若我决意让他下台,相信我,他定会迅速走人。”
鲍威尔坚称,唯有基于“正当理由”方可解除其职务,他所援引的依据大概率指向《联邦储备法》第10条。虽然该法条并未明确界定“正当理由”,但美国最高法院1935年在“汉弗莱遗嘱执行人诉美国案”中的裁决指出,这种保护意味着此类机构负责人只能因“效率低下、失职或渎职”而被免职,而绝不能单纯基于当下的政策分歧。
特朗普已通过解雇全国劳工关系委员会(National Labor Relations Board)和功绩制保护委员会(Merit Systems Protection Board)中的民主党成员来验证这一先例,这两起案件均上诉至最高法院。无论如何,Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席执行官杰伊·哈特菲尔德(Jay Hatfield)认为,最高法院于1935年确立的判定标准,同样适用于描述鲍威尔及美联储在2021年应对通胀攀升时反应迟缓的情景。
如今,他同意特朗普的观点,即央行应采取降息举措。尽管哈特菲尔德管理着交易所交易基金(ETF)和一系列对冲基金,但他还是告诉《财富》杂志,总统需停止施压威胁。
他说:“当下,我们实在难以承受更多波动与不确定性。”
财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)似乎也持同样的观点。据《政治报》(Politico)上周报道,贝森特已多次向白宫官员发出警示,任何解雇鲍威尔的尝试都有可能导致市场动荡。
不过,当地时间4月22日,特朗普改口称,他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,并再次重申美联储应该降低利率。
美元会失去其避险地位吗?
美联储的独立性是美国经济吸引投资者的关键因素。然而,一旦政治干预侵蚀央行货币政策制定的自主性,通货膨胀往往随之而来,这在土耳其等独裁国家一直是个大问题。
值得注意的是,特朗普并非首位对美联储施压要求降息的总统。20世纪70年代初,理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)总统曾要求时任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)维持低利率,此举在后续进一步加剧了美国历史上最为严峻的滞胀危机。
直到伯恩斯的继任者保罗·沃克(Paul Volcker)将利率提高到创纪录的20%,这场危机方得平息。这一举措引发了一场痛苦的经济衰退,广受诟病。不过,瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席经济学家保罗·唐纳文(Paul Donovan)表示,正是这种以抗击通胀为使命的独立央行体系兴起,为美国开启了被称作“大稳健”的宏观经济稳定时代。
他在周一的一份报告中写道:“建立这种信任需要数年时间,而失去这种信任可能只在一夜之间。”
在许多人看来,近期的市场动荡表明人们对美国的信心急剧下降。相较于一篮子标准货币,美元今年以来已贬值逾9%,欧元兑美元汇率更是触及2021年11月以来的峰值。与此同时,黄金价格突破3420美元关口,刷新历史纪录,其作为避险资产的重要地位再度引发市场关注。
诚然,特朗普及其部分盟友曾主张美元贬值,旨在增强美国出口商品在国际市场的价格竞争力。在2023年的一场参议院听证会上,现任副总统詹姆斯·戴维·万斯(JD Vance)曾就美元作为全球储备货币的地位向鲍威尔提出质询。
鲍威尔说:“在经济动荡期,市场普遍倾向于持有美元计价资产,这就是美元的优势所在。”
不过,目前的情况并非如此。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
• 相较于一篮子标准货币,美元今年以来已贬值逾9%,欧元兑美元汇率更是触及2021年11月以来的峰值。与此同时,黄金价格突破3420美元关口,刷新历史纪录,其作为避险资产的重要地位再度引发市场关注。
唐纳德·特朗普推行的关税政策表面上旨在迫使全球“购买美国商品”,但投资者对美国资产的态度却恰恰相反。美国股市与国债市场遭遇抛售浪潮,甚至连坚挺的美元也受到冲击,其避险货币的地位受到质疑,而特朗普对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的持续施压亦未能扭转这一颓势。
尽管央行独立性的优势已成为经济领域的主流理念,然而专家警示,这一理念背后缺乏坚实的法律支撑。周一,市场首次对特朗普首席经济学家透露的“政府正探讨罢免美联储主席”这一消息做出回应。美元跌至两年来的低点,标准普尔500指数跌幅超3%。与此同时,特朗普在社交媒体上再度呼吁鲍威尔及美联储实施降息举措,声称此举将与其关税策略形成协同效应。
特朗普在“真相社交”(Truth Social)上写道:“正如我所预见的那样,随着各类成本大幅回落,美国如今几乎不存在通胀问题。然而,除非那位‘行动迟缓的落败者’(暗指美联储主席鲍威尔)即刻下调利率,否则经济增长或将陷入放缓困境。”
上周,美联储主席鲍威尔发出警示,称特朗普宣布的关税政策或将引发经济增长放缓与通胀加剧的双重困境(这一可怕的组合被称为“滞胀”),对此特朗普表态称,解雇鲍威尔“宜早不宜迟”。鲍威尔坦言,面对这样的复杂形势,美联储的处境颇为艰难:既要通过加息遏制通胀,又需降息来刺激经济活动。
次日,特朗普在与意大利总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)一起接受记者采访时,多次批评这位全球最具影响力的央行行长。
特朗普说:“倘若我决意让他下台,相信我,他定会迅速走人。”
鲍威尔坚称,唯有基于“正当理由”方可解除其职务,他所援引的依据大概率指向《联邦储备法》第10条。虽然该法条并未明确界定“正当理由”,但美国最高法院1935年在“汉弗莱遗嘱执行人诉美国案”中的裁决指出,这种保护意味着此类机构负责人只能因“效率低下、失职或渎职”而被免职,而绝不能单纯基于当下的政策分歧。
特朗普已通过解雇全国劳工关系委员会(National Labor Relations Board)和功绩制保护委员会(Merit Systems Protection Board)中的民主党成员来验证这一先例,这两起案件均上诉至最高法院。无论如何,Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席执行官杰伊·哈特菲尔德(Jay Hatfield)认为,最高法院于1935年确立的判定标准,同样适用于描述鲍威尔及美联储在2021年应对通胀攀升时反应迟缓的情景。
如今,他同意特朗普的观点,即央行应采取降息举措。尽管哈特菲尔德管理着交易所交易基金(ETF)和一系列对冲基金,但他还是告诉《财富》杂志,总统需停止施压威胁。
他说:“当下,我们实在难以承受更多波动与不确定性。”
财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)似乎也持同样的观点。据《政治报》(Politico)上周报道,贝森特已多次向白宫官员发出警示,任何解雇鲍威尔的尝试都有可能导致市场动荡。
不过,当地时间4月22日,特朗普改口称,他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,并再次重申美联储应该降低利率。
美元会失去其避险地位吗?
美联储的独立性是美国经济吸引投资者的关键因素。然而,一旦政治干预侵蚀央行货币政策制定的自主性,通货膨胀往往随之而来,这在土耳其等独裁国家一直是个大问题。
值得注意的是,特朗普并非首位对美联储施压要求降息的总统。20世纪70年代初,理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)总统曾要求时任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)维持低利率,此举在后续进一步加剧了美国历史上最为严峻的滞胀危机。
直到伯恩斯的继任者保罗·沃克(Paul Volcker)将利率提高到创纪录的20%,这场危机方得平息。这一举措引发了一场痛苦的经济衰退,广受诟病。不过,瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席经济学家保罗·唐纳文(Paul Donovan)表示,正是这种以抗击通胀为使命的独立央行体系兴起,为美国开启了被称作“大稳健”的宏观经济稳定时代。
他在周一的一份报告中写道:“建立这种信任需要数年时间,而失去这种信任可能只在一夜之间。”
在许多人看来,近期的市场动荡表明人们对美国的信心急剧下降。相较于一篮子标准货币,美元今年以来已贬值逾9%,欧元兑美元汇率更是触及2021年11月以来的峰值。与此同时,黄金价格突破3420美元关口,刷新历史纪录,其作为避险资产的重要地位再度引发市场关注。
诚然,特朗普及其部分盟友曾主张美元贬值,旨在增强美国出口商品在国际市场的价格竞争力。在2023年的一场参议院听证会上,现任副总统詹姆斯·戴维·万斯(JD Vance)曾就美元作为全球储备货币的地位向鲍威尔提出质询。
鲍威尔说:“在经济动荡期,市场普遍倾向于持有美元计价资产,这就是美元的优势所在。”
不过,目前的情况并非如此。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
The dollar is down over 9% year to date compared with a standard basket of currencies, with the euro stronger relative to U.S. currency than at any point since November 2021. The safe-haven status of gold is also in focus as the precious metal’s price hits record highs above the $3,420 mark.
• President Donald Trump’s tariffs are ostensibly aimed at forcing the world to “buy American,” but investors are doing the opposite with U.S. assets. The selloff in equities and Treasury bonds has even hit the almighty dollar, putting its safe-haven status in question, and Trump’s badgering of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t appear to be helping.
While the virtues of central bank independence have become mainstream economic dogma, experts warn it lacks a strong legal basis. On Monday, markets got their first chance to react to Trump’s top economist saying the administration is studying its options to fire the Fed chair. The dollar slid to a two-year low, and the S&P 500 dropped over 3% as the president took to social media and once again called on Powell and the Fed to cut interest rates, which Trump claims will complement his tariff strategy.
“With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, “but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”
Last week, the president said Powell’s termination could not “come fast enough” after the Fed chair warned Trump’s announced tariffs could result in both slowing growth and higher inflation, a dreaded combination known as “stagflation.” Powell acknowledged such a scenario is difficult for central banks, which raise interest rates to fight inflation but lower them to spur economic activity.
A day later, Trump repeatedly criticized the world’s most important central banker while talking to reporters with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
“If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” Trump said.
Powell has maintained that he can only be fired “for cause,” presumably referring to Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act. While not explicitly defined in the statute, the Supreme Court’s 1935 decision in Humphrey’s Executor v. United States held that protection meant the head of such an agency could only be removed for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance”—and not for current policy disagreements.
Trump has already tested that precedent by firing Democratic members of the National Labor Relations Board and Merit Systems Protection Board, with both cases going to the Supreme Court. Regardless, Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, thinks the court’s 1935 standard could be used to describe Powell and the Fed’s slow response to rising inflation in 2021.
Now, he agrees with Trump that the central bank should cut rates. Still, even Hatfield, who manages ETFs and a series of hedge funds, told Fortune the president needs to back off on his threats.
“We just don’t need more volatility, more uncertainty right now,” he said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seems to agree. Last week, Politico reported Bessent has repeatedly warned White House officials that any attempt to fire Powell risks destabilizing markets.
Will the dollar lose its safe-haven status?
The independence of the Federal Reserve is a key part of what makes the U.S. economy appealing to investors. When politics interferes with the central bank’s ability to set monetary policy, however, inflation tends to be the result, which has been a major problem in autocracies like Turkey.
Trump, notably, is far from the first president to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. President Richard Nixon told then–Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep rates low in the early 1970s, later contributing to America’s worst bout with stagflation.
The crisis was only cured after Burns’ successor, Paul Volcker, raised rates to a record 20%. The move induced a painful and unpopular recession. However, the rise of an independent central bank committed to fighting inflation helped usher in a period of macroeconomic stability known as the “Great Moderation,” according to Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Building that trust takes years,” he wrote in a note Monday. “Losing that trust can happen overnight.”
To many, recent market turmoil has signaled a dramatic drop of confidence in the U.S. The dollar is down over 9% year to date compared with a standard basket of currencies, with the euro stronger relative to U.S. currency than at any point since November 2021. The safe-haven status of gold is in focus as the precious metal’s price hits record highs above the $3,420 mark.
Of course, Trump and several of his allies have called for a weaker dollar to make American exports cheaper abroad. At a Senate hearing in 2023, Powell was questioned about its status as the world’s reserve currency by now–Vice President JD Vance.
“It’s the place where people want to be in times of stress,” Powell said, “using dollar-denominated assets.”
That’s not the case right now, though.